In Kiryandongo District, Uganda, rising temperatures and erratic rainfall endanger over 165,000 refugees and local residents.

The root causes of the crisis lie in escalating global warming trends that are altering precipitation patterns. This shift not only disrupts agricultural cycles but also exacerbates water scarcity issues, pushing both refugee camps and host communities to their limits.

Erratic rainfall means crops fail immediately, leading to food shortages and economic strain for everyone involved.

Long-term vulnerability includes increased frequency of droughts and heatwaves, which could permanently alter the region's ability to support large populations.

What is the long-term climate outlook for this region?

The long-term forecast predicts worsening conditions with more frequent and severe droughts. This will likely lead to increased competition over scarce resources, potentially destabilizing the area further.

Outlook: Negative, with growing risks of resource scarcity.