El Niño-driven drought and rising fuel, fertilizer prices could slash Kenya's GDP by 1.5 percent in 2026.

The economic blow from these compounded shocks will exacerbate poverty and undernourishment, with over 750,000 more Kenyans slipping into poverty and nearly five million facing severe food shortages. The agricultural sector, already strained by erratic weather patterns, now faces an additional burden as higher input costs squeeze profit margins.

The crops failed immediately. This means that millions of people will struggle to afford basic necessities like food and fuel.

Long-term vulnerability to climate shocks remains high, with the potential for recurring droughts and economic instability threatening Kenya's development progress.

What is the long-term climate outlook for this region?

Kenya must invest in resilient agricultural practices and diversify its economy to mitigate future risks. The government needs to strengthen social safety nets and improve infrastructure to handle extreme weather events.

The outlook remains challenging without significant adaptation measures.